TAM

$48.0 billion

Definition & method: TAM = annual revenue if every person aged 65+ worldwide bought an annual subscription to the AI companion (software + life-story archival features). Key inputs and assumptions: (1) global 65+ population ≈ 800 million (PRB, 2024 World Population Data Sheet); (2) a conservative blended ARPU of $60/year per user — chosen as a conservative midpoint between consumer AI-companion annual pricing (consumer AI companion apps / subscriptions in the $50–$70/yr band) and life-story/memoir services (~$99/yr) used as comparators (Replika; StoryWorth). Calculation: 800,000,000 people * $60/year = $48,000,000,000/year → $48.0 billion TAM (annual). Rationale and context: this TAM intentionally uses a conservative, software-first ARPU (no hardware) and counts the entire 65+ population so investors can see the upper bound if product were universally adopted or subsidized; adjacent markets (companion/healthcare robots, consumer robotics, digital health) are multi-billion-dollar categories, showing category-level economic demand. Need signal: public-health and clinical literature on loneliness / social isolation among older adults demonstrates clear demand for scalable companionship interventions (CDC).

• prb.org
• help.storyworth.com
• help.replika.com
• grandviewresearch.com
• cdc.gov

SAM

$10.16 billion

Definition & method: SAM = serviceable (geographic & infrastructure) market — seniors in high-income / OECD countries who are digitally reachable today and therefore realistically addressable by an app-based AI companion. Key inputs and assumptions: (1) OECD 65+ population baseline ≈ 242 million (OECD demographic reporting); (2) conservative digital-readiness assumption of ~70% of OECD seniors being device/broadband-enabled and willing to use an app-based companion (this blends country examples: Pew shows ~61% smartphone ownership among U.S. 65+ and Eurostat shows strong internet use among EU 65–74 cohorts — these justify a ~70% connected-rate for OECD mix); (3) ARPU = $60/year (same as TAM assumption). Calculation: 242,000,000 (OECD 65+) * 70% connected ≈ 169,400,000 potential users * $60/year ≈ $10,164,000,000/year → $10.16 billion SAM (annual). Rationale: SAM focuses the TAM to markets with sufficient device penetration, broadband, and payer capacity (consumer purchase, family-gift, insurer / provider procurement) where the app can be delivered at scale and monetized.

• oecd.org
• pewresearch.org
• ec.europa.eu
• prb.org
• help.replika.com

SOM

$152.5 million

Definition & method: SOM = realistic near-term revenue the startup could capture (first 3 years) given focused go-to-market. Approach: target English‑language, high-access markets (U.S., Canada, UK, Australia) plus pilot partnerships with senior-living operators, home-care agencies and large caregiver networks; use family-gifting and provider-subsidy channels to accelerate adoption. Assumptions and rationale: (1) use the SAM figure above ($10.164B/year) as the addressable annual market; (2) assume an early achievable penetration of ~1.5% of SAM over the early years (this is conservative relative to typical freemium/trial-to-paid and niche digital-health conversion ranges — freemium and SaaS benchmarks commonly show single-digit paid-conversion rates; digital mental-health consumer monetization studies show low paid-subscriber shares, so 1.5% is a cautious, defensible early-adopter target). Calculation: $10,164,000,000 * 1.5% = $152,460,000/year → ≈ $152.5 million SOM (annual revenue in early steady-state). Go-to-market levers to reach this SOM: partnerships with senior-living chains, healthcare systems, insurer / benefits pilots, family-gift campaigns (holiday / memorialization products), and paid trials for caregivers. Benchmarks & sources used to set the 1.5% conversion assumption include freemium/SaaS conversion studies and digital‑health paid-user metrics; U.S. Census population figures are cited to show how a U.S.-first GTM maps to absolute user counts.

• census.gov
• ivyforms.com
• quickmarketpitch.com
• grandviewresearch.com
• prb.org