TAM

$131.5 billion

Total Addressable Market (TAM) defined as the global C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) market because an always‑on, stratospheric HALE platform directly substitutes for or complements airborne communications and persistent ISR capabilities. Grand View Research estimates the global C4ISR market at USD 131.50 billion in 2024; this figure includes hardware, software and services across communications and ISR payloads that stratospheric platforms can address. For context, global military expenditure was roughly USD 2.72 trillion in 2024 (SIPRI); combining those figures implies C4ISR is on the order of ~4.8% of global defense spending (131.5 / 2718 ≈ 4.84%) — the percentage is a derived inference used to show scale.

• grandviewresearch.com
• sipri.org

SAM

$48.7 billion

Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM) defined as the annual U.S. defense portion of the global C4ISR market reachable through U.S. procurement channels and allied programs in the near term. Grand View Research reports North America accounted for >39% of the global C4ISR market in 2024 and that the U.S. represented >95% of North America’s share; applying those shares to the 2024 global C4ISR estimate gives: USD 131.5B * 0.39 * 0.95 ≈ USD 48.7B. This amount represents the U.S. annual C4ISR procurement/modernization spending that persistent stratospheric connectivity + ISR platforms could realistically compete for (platform hardware, radios/payloads, integration and recurring services). DoD initiatives (e.g., Replicator) and related procurement priorities increase near‑term accessibility of these procurement channels for attritable/autonomous systems.

• grandviewresearch.com
• defensescoop.com

SOM

$500 million

Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) — conservative near‑term (first 3–5 years) revenue target achievable by a new entrant focused on U.S. defense customers: estimate set at ~1% of the U.S. C4ISR annual market (SAM). Calculation: 1% * USD 48.7B ≈ USD 487M, rounded to USD 500M for a conservative, round planning number. Rationale: (a) the DoD 'Replicator' initiative has explicitly provisioned roughly USD 0.5–1.0B across FY2024–FY2025 to field thousands of attritable autonomous systems and to open rapid procurement on‑ramps to commercial suppliers; (b) congressional and CRS analyses show the DoD and services are prioritizing attritable/autonomous acquisitions and report plausible per‑unit cost ranges (attritable estimates and examples range from sub‑million to single‑digit millions; CRS notes an Air Force attritable estimate range of about USD 2M–20M per airframe while an Army procurement line shows an example per‑unit implied price near USD 0.5M), which makes low‑single‑digit‑million pricing and service contracts feasible for some configurations; (c) combining modest share capture of Replicator‑type tranche funding plus initial service/ops contracts yields a plausible early SOM on the order of half a billion dollars. This SOM is deliberately conservative — it assumes meeting technical, safety and certification hurdles, successful program‑of‑record or rapid‑procurement wins, and initial production scale.

• defensescoop.com
• everycrsreport.com
• congress.gov
• grandviewresearch.com