TAM

$1.23 billion

Scope & approach (U.S., annual revenue): 1) Population base: I used the U.S. 65+ population from the Census Vintage 2024 estimates (61.2 million people). (source: U.S. Census). 2) Target subset = seniors who do NOT use smartphones: Pew Research (Mobile Fact Sheet, 2024) reports ~79% smartphone ownership among ages 65+, i.e. about 21% do not own/use smartphones. Applying 21% to 61.2M yields ~12.852M seniors without smartphones (61.2M * 0.21 = 12,852,000). (sources: Pew + Census). 3) Revenue per user (assumption & comparables): this service is a recurring physical-delivery product (postcards, short booklets or monthly photobooks). Comparable consumer-priced photo-subscription offerings (Chatbooks and similar photobook subscription services) show typical subscription pricing in the ~$7–$12/month range; postcard services sell single mailed cards in the low single-digit dollars. Taking a plausible blended ARPU for a family-subscribed plan (mix of postcards and a monthly/quarterly booklet) of $8/month = $96/year is conservative and grounded in consumer photo-subscription and postcard pricing. (sources: Chatbooks pricing + Touchnote/postcard pricing). 4) TAM math (annual, U.S.): 12,852,000 potential recipients * $96/year = $1,233,792,000 (~$1.23 billion/year). Notes & sensitivity: this is an annual U.S.-only revenue TAM assuming one subscription per non-smartphone senior. TAM scales linearly with ARPU or if you expand to international markets. If you assume a higher ARPU (e.g., $15/month) TAM would increase proportionally; if you target households rather than individuals (one household subscription covering two seniors), effective TAM would be smaller in units but similar in revenue. The calculation is transparent so you can swap assumptions (smartphone penetration, ARPU, household vs individual) to re-run the TAM.

• census.gov
• pewresearch.org
• chatbooks.com
• dpreview.com
• touchnote-support.freshdesk.com

SAM

$987 million

Definition & assumptions for Serviceable Available Market (U.S., annual revenue): 1) Narrowing TAM to the seniors who are realistically reachable for this product: non-smartphone seniors who have at least one family member (child/grandchild/close relative) that actively uses social media and therefore generates the photos/posts the service would collect. Pew Research shows strong social‑media usage among younger adults (e.g., high shares on YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and rapidly growing TikTok usage), so a large share of seniors will have at least one social-media-active relative. (source: Pew Social Media use). 2) Application of a conservative reachable-share: I assume ~80% of the 12.852M non-smartphone seniors have at least one family member who is active on social media and is a potential content-source/ buyer (12.852M * 0.80 = 10,281,600). This 80% is an operational assumption grounded in Pew data showing high social media penetration among the age groups most likely to be children/grandchildren (see referenced Pew social-media metrics by age). 3) SAM revenue math (annual): 10,281,600 * $96/year (same ARPU used in TAM) = $987,033,600 (~$987 million/year). Notes: SAM is the subset of TAM that is realistically addressable given required content sources and buyer profiles (family members who post online). This still assumes broad willingness-to-pay among those families; a further short-term “market adoption” discount (conversion rate from reachable to paying customers) would be applied when estimating near-term obtainable share (SOM).

• pewresearch.org
• pewresearch.org
• acl.gov
• chatbooks.com
• dpreview.com

SOM

$19.74 million

Serviceable Obtainable Market (near-term / early traction estimate, U.S., annual revenue): 1) Framing: SOM is the realistic share of SAM a new startup could capture in the early scaling years (3–5 years) given focused marketing, partnerships (senior-care orgs, healthcare providers, AARP-like channels), referral/gift purchasing by adult children, and pilot rollouts in targeted metros. 2) Assumption for initial achievable share: I use a conservative 2% penetration of SAM in the early-scaling window. Rationale: niche D2C subscription products that rely on word-of-mouth, community partnerships and targeted digital marketing commonly target low-single-digit percentage market shares of their reachable SAM in the early growth phase; 2% is a conservative, defendable planning assumption for a specialized physical-subscription service. 3) SOM math (annual): 2% * SAM population (10,281,600) = 205,632 paying customers. At $96/year ARPU => 205,632 * $96 = $19,740,672 (~$19.74 million/year). 4) Interpretation & next steps: $19.7M/year is a reasonable early-revenue target for planning and investor/operational forecasting under the stated assumptions. If you deploy a higher ARPU product mix, or succeed at faster adoption (e.g., 5% of SAM), SOM scales accordingly (5% -> ~513k customers -> ~$49.2M/year). Key levers to improve SOM: (a) partnerships with senior / caregiving networks, (b) gifting/holiday acquisition campaigns (adult children buy subscriptions for parents/grandparents), (c) product tiers (postcards, weekly digests, monthly booklets) and (d) easy permission/authentication workflows to pull in family social feeds.

• pewresearch.org
• pewresearch.org
• census.gov
• chatbooks.com
• grandviewresearch.com