TAM

$41.3 billion

Definition: total annual revenue opportunity for a consumer-grade, group-aware in-chat AI agent that operates across SMS, WhatsApp and Telegram worldwide (subscription or in-app revenue basis). Methodology (bottom-up cross-checked with industry totals): 1) Target population: industry datasets estimate global mobile messaging app users in the mid‑2020s at roughly 4.59 billion (2025 projection). Sources documenting global messaging scale and platform MAUs inform this base. 2) Group-chat participation: messaging platforms heavily feature groups and private group messaging; a conservative assumption is that ~60% of messaging users are active in at least one group conversation and therefore addressable by a “group brain” agent (4.59B * 60% = ~2.75B addressable group-users). 3) Monetization (ARPU): a consumer subscription / in‑chat paid model is used as the primary monetization proxy. Comparable consumer AI/messaging subscriptions range from single-digit monthly equivalents (Telegram Premium / app subscriptions) up to higher tiers for power users (ChatGPT Plus/Pro). A mid‑case ARPU of $15 per user per year (conservative relative to premium AI tiers, aggressive relative to low‑price messaging add-ons) was selected for the global TAM run‑rate. 4) Calculation: 2.754 billion addressable group-users * $15/year = $41.31 billion annual TAM (rounded to $41.3B). Cross-check: this bottom‑up projection is consistent in scale with published conversational-AI market forecasts (Grand View Research projects conversational AI market expansion into the low tens of billions through 2025 and ~41.4B by 2030), which provides a top‑down plausibility check. Sensitivity note: using a lower ARPU ($5/year) yields ~ $13.8B TAM; a higher ARPU ($30/year) yields ~ $82.6B TAM. Key assumptions are documented above and should be stress‑tested against go‑to‑market pricing and early conversion data.

• prioridata.com
• datareportal.com
• explodingtopics.com
• prnewswire.com
• wired.com

SAM

$16.5 billion

Definition: serviceable available market = portion of the TAM realistically addressable in developed, high‑ARPU markets and channels where payment rails, English (or other supported payment languages), and messaging‑based monetization are already mature (North America, Western Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea, UK, etc.). Methodology: 1) Start with the TAM addressable group-user population (~2.754B from TAM calculation). 2) Apply market‑access filter: approximately 20% of global messaging users reside in developed / high-ARPU markets with the combination of payment readiness and consumer willingness to pay required for direct subscriptions (2.754B * 20% ≈ 550.8M serviceable users). This 20% share is a conservative aggregation of North America + Western Europe + other developed markets according to digital regional distribution data. 3) ARPU uplift in these markets: use a higher ARPU to reflect greater willingness to pay and higher app-store spend in developed markets; a mid-case assumption of $30/year is used (roughly double the global mid-case ARPU, still conservative relative to some premium AI tiers). 4) Calculation: 550.8M serviceable users * $30/year ≈ $16.52B annual SAM (rounded to $16.5B). Rationale and comparables: pricing and paid‑subscriber examples (Telegram Premium, consumer AI subscription tiers such as ChatGPT Plus/Pro) and app‑store subscription benchmarks support the ARPU differential between global and developed‑market cohorts. This SAM represents the addressable paid consumer revenue opportunity in initial launch markets and channels.

• datareportal.com
• prioridata.com
• explodingtopics.com
• pricetimeline.com
• wired.com

SOM

$165 million

Definition: serviceable obtainable market = realistic near‑term revenue capture (3–5 year horizon) given typical early consumer conversion rates, go‑to‑market constraints and competition. Methodology: 1) Use the SAM annual revenue ~ $16.52B (see SAM). 2) Apply a conservative achievable share of SAM = 1% in the early scaling window (3–5 years). Rationale: consumer freemium/subscription conversion benchmarks and recent messaging‑platform subscription examples indicate that low‑single‑percent paid penetration is realistic in large messaging ecosystems (Telegram Premium reached a paid subscriber base in the low‑tens of millions versus a ~1B+ user scale, i.e., ~1–2% order of magnitude in examples). Industry subscription benchmarking (RevenueCat / sector reports) shows many consumer apps convert in the low single‑digits from active users to paid subscribers; 1% is therefore a conservative, defensible assumption for an early entrant. 3) Calculation (revenue basis): $16.52B * 1% ≈ $165.2M/year (rounded to $165M). 4) Alternate view (users): 550.8M SAM users * 1% = ~5.5M paying users; at $30/year ARPU = ~$165M. This SOM represents a prudent short‑to‑medium term revenue target that assumes product–market fit in selected launch markets, modest paid conversion, and incremental growth from partnerships and upsells.

• pricetimeline.com
• arstechnica.com
• datareportal.com
• prnewswire.com