TAM

$178.1 billion

Methodology and sources: We treat TAM as the annual global 'coffee shops & cafes' (out‑of‑home / in‑store) revenue because a flat‑rate, in‑person coffee subscription competes directly for that spend. Global Industry Analysts (MarketResearch) estimates the global Coffee Shops market at US$178.1 billion in 2024 — we therefore use $178.1B as the TAM (an upper bound equal to 100% of global in‑store coffee spend). For context the broader global coffee market (beans, RTD, retail & foodservice) is estimated at ~US$269.3B in 2024 by Grand View Research; that larger figure shows category scale but the coffee‑shops subsegment is the relevant TAM for a cafe‑focused subscription.

• marketresearch.com
• grandviewresearch.com
• cobank.com

SAM

$31.2 billion

How SAM is derived (young coffee lovers in big cities): Start from TAM = US$178.1B (global coffee‑shops/cafes). Narrow to 'big cities' (here defined as urban settlements >1M population): UN/UN‑DESA summaries (cited via IPCC/UN analyses) show a high share of urban residents live in larger cities; industry reports also show out‑of‑home coffee is concentrated in urban centres. Conservatively we assume large cities (>1M) account for ~50% of global coffee‑shops revenue (this is an explicit assumption informed by urban concentration and higher per‑capita out‑of‑home spend in large cities). Next narrow to the target demographic 'young coffee lovers' (approx. ages 18–34): NCA and industry data indicate younger cohorts (especially 25–39 and 18–34) drive specialty and out‑of‑home coffee visits; conservatively assume this cohort accounts for ~35% of coffee‑shop spend in big cities. Calculation: SAM = 178.1B * 0.50 * 0.35 = US$31.17B → rounded to US$31.2B. Note: the 50% and 35% factors are stated assumptions (documented and defensible given cited urban + demographic evidence) and should be refined with partner POS / city‑level data.

• marketresearch.com
• industryresearch.biz
• ncausa.org
• ipcc.ch

SOM

$312 million

How SOM (serviceable obtainable market) is estimated: SOM = an illustrative, evidence‑based near‑term capture of SAM (what a focused startup could realistically obtain within ~3–5 years in major global cities by signing partners, launching aggressively, and optimizing pricing/retention). We use a 1.0% penetration of the SAM as an aggressive-yet-plausible benchmark for multi‑city scaling: SOM = 31.17B * 1.0% = US$311.7M → rounded to US$312M. Rationale and comparables: subscription/loyalty adoption can scale rapidly in city markets (for example Pret’s multi‑year subscription sold hundreds of millions of coffees under its Club Pret programme, and Starbucks Rewards shows tens of millions of active members in the U.S.), while independent subscription research shows the coffee‑subscription vertical is growing — these examples demonstrate both upside and important economic constraints (chains have also restructured subscription offers when unit economics required it). This SOM is an illustrative starting target; actual obtainable revenue will depend on pricing (flat monthly fee), average revenue per subscriber, partner revenue share, and churn — all of which should be modelled with pilot city data.

• reuters.com
• investor.starbucks.com
• factmr.com