TAM

$70.1 billion

Definition & approach: I used the global 'insights' industry as the most relevant baseline because Artificial Societies is an insights/experiment product (research software + substitution of parts of traditional market research and reporting). ESOMAR's Global Market Research 2024 (summarized by ResearchWorld) estimates the global insights industry at ~USD 142B (2023) and breaks that into: Research Software = USD 56B, Market Research Services = USD 54B, Reporting = USD 33B. Source: ESOMAR/ResearchWorld. Calculation (conservative, core TAM): - Core addressable = Research Software segment (AI-native products & platforms) = $56.0B (product is primarily a research-software offering). - Add conservative substitution of traditional market research: assume Artificial Societies can replace ~20% of market-research services (e.g., many qualitative panels, message-pretest, concept tests, early-stage segmentation experiments) -> 0.20 * $54.0B = $10.8B. - Add conservative capture of reporting/insights automation value (AI-generated insights and dashboards) at ~10% of Reporting -> 0.10 * $33.0B = $3.3B. Total TAM (core, conservative) = $56.0B + $10.8B + $3.3B = $70.1B (rounded to one decimal). Why this method: ESOMAR's segmentation aligns directly to where simulated audiences would compete (research software) and where they could substitute billable work (parts of market research & reporting). I treat adjacent categories (e.g., the broader MarTech market) as upside rather than core TAM to avoid double-counting. Upside note: Grand View Research’s MarTech estimate (~$465.2B in 2024) shows a large adjacent pool of marketing/experimentation budgets; securing a modest share of those budgets (for example 3–5% of experimentation-related MarTech) would materially expand the opportunity beyond the $70.1B core TAM. I list the primary sources below and used conservative substitution assumptions to avoid double-counting.

• researchworld.com
• thebusinessresearchcompany.com
• grandviewresearch.com
• globenewswire.com
• futuremarketinsights.com

SAM

$24.5 billion

Definition & approach: SAM = the portion of the TAM the startup can reasonably sell into given geography and initial buyer profiles. I define the initial SAM as the U.S. (and immediate North American enterprise) portion of the core TAM because early go‑to‑market will typically target U.S. enterprise marketing and insights teams. Rationale for the U.S. share: related industry splits (MarTech, CRO, advertising) show North America/U.S. is the single largest regional buyer (Grand View: North America ~33–34% of MarTech; GroupM/industry reporting place the U.S. as ~35–37% of global ad activity). Using a conservative U.S. / early-adopter share of 35% of the $70.1B core TAM gives: SAM = 0.35 * $70.1B = $24.535B → rounded to $24.5B. Assumptions: initial product focuses on enterprise marketing/insights teams in the United States (3–5 year rollout for enterprise pilots → expansion). The 35% figure is conservative (between North America’s known share of MarTech and U.S. share of global advertising) and chosen to reflect where budgets and early adoption are concentrated. Risks that could shrink SAM: platform/policy restrictions on social-data extraction, regulatory/privacy constraints, or slower enterprise procurement cycles.

• researchworld.com
• grandviewresearch.com
• mediapost.com
• futuremarketinsights.com
• thebusinessresearchcompany.com

SOM

$245 million

Definition & approach: SOM = realistic near-term revenue capture (what the startup can obtain in 3–5 years with an enterprise SaaS GTM). I use a conservative market-penetration scenario of 1.0% of the U.S. SAM as an achievable target for a focused enterprise SaaS that lands pilots, proves ROI, and expands within accounts. Calculation: SOM = 1.0% * $24.5B = $245M annual revenue (steady-state / run-rate target within 3–5 years). Why 1%: early-stage B2B SaaS winners in large horizontal B2B markets commonly target and aim to capture low-single-digit percentages of a served-U.S. market within a few years; 1% is a conservative, realistic goal for a differentiated product that solves a high-value use case (fast message testing, lower-cost qualitative validation, experiment speed). Example ARPA view: $245M ARR could be achieved via ~1,633 enterprise customers at $150k ACV, or ~4,900 customers at $50k ACV (pick a mix of enterprise and mid-market deals). Sensitivity: 0.5% → ~$122.8M; 2% → ~$490.7M. Key assumptions & risks: assumes fast enterprise pilot conversion, acceptable legal/ethical approach to using public social traces (platform policies and privacy/regulation must be addressed), and close alignment with marketing and insights teams that already spend on CRO, experimentation, and research software. See references for market growth signals and adjacent category sizes.

• researchworld.com
• grandviewresearch.com
• futuremarketinsights.com
• thebusinessresearchcompany.com
• globenewswire.com